i'm chris wallace. the u.s. and iran exchanged prisoners, as a landmark nuclear deal takes effect. with just two weeks to the iowa caucuses, ted cruz takes the gloves off against donald trump. >> since september, the constitution hasn't changed. but the poll numbers have. >> there's a big question mark on your head, and you can't do that to the party. >> cruz defending his eligibility to be president, and attacking trump's so-called new york values. >> not a lot of conservatives come out of manhattan. i'm just saying. >> when the world trade center came down, i saw something that no place on earth could have handled more beautifully, more humanely than new york.

today ted cruz is one on one, only on "fox news sunday." then -- >> i think he's been the most polarizing president we've had in our lifetime. house speaker paul ryan responds to president obama's state of the union speech, and lays out the gop agenda for 2016. a "fox news sunday" exclusive. and suddenly the race is too close to call. and our "power player of the week." >> what's it like managing donald trump all right now on "fox news sunday." and we begin with breaking news. three of the four americans released by iran have been flown out of the country. a fifth american was released separately. at the same time, international sanctions by iran have been lifted and billions in iranian

assets released as market of the landmark nuclear deal. we'll get reaction from ted cruz in a moment, but first more from kathryn. though secretary of state says it was never tied to a successful nuclear deal. >> while the two tracks of negotiations were not directly related -- and they were not -- there is no question that the pace and the progress of the humanitarian talks accelerated in light of the relationships forged and the diplomatic channels unlocked. >> jason reddian, who was arrested in 2014 and convicted of spying by a freed court, the freed americans including after

the new brob, abedini's wife spoke cautiously about the family's relief. >> it just seems surreal. it came at a time i was not expecting. it just seem real until be see him, but i notice it's real. >> the prisoner exchange came just after sanctions were lifted, freeing of tens of billions of frozen assets, opening global markets to iran's massive oil and gas reserves. a congressional source briefed on the intelligence says iran is hosting at least three americans, and some of the names are not publicly released. joins me is senator ted cruz. welcome back to "fox news sunday." >> chris, good to be with you. the breaking news, iran has released those four americans, at least three have cleared iranian airspace and the iran nuclear deal went into effect, which means the u.s. and other

western countries have started lifting sanctions releasing billions to iran. what's your reaction to both? >> well, listen, praise god the prisoners are coming home, in particular millions of believers across the world have been lifting up pastor saeed abedini in prayer. we celebrate them coming moup, jason rezaian, amir hekmati, the fourth individual. >> i spoke briefly to pastor saeed's wife, and we're all very grateful he's coming. but at the same time this deal is a problematic deal, and it reflects a pattern we have seen in the obama administration over and over again of negotiating with terrorists, and making deals and trades that endanger u.s. safety and security. this deal has a lot of deals in

common with the bowe bergdahl deal. someone now facing court-martial, we released five. and to bring back americans wrongly imprisoned, we release seven terrorists who helped iran with their nuclear program and agreed not to prosecute another 14 terrorists for doing the same thing. that's 21 terrorists helping iran develop nuclear weapons that they intend to use to try to murder us. i think it's a very dangerous precedent. the result of this, every bad actor on earth has been told go capture an american. if you want terrorists out of the jail, capture an american and president obama is in the let's make a deal business. that's a dangerous precedent. it wasn't the only deal we had with iran. iran's revolutionary guard seized ten u.s. navy sailors, and released this video showing those sailors on their knees. here was your reaction at the

first debate. >> i give you my word, if i'm elected president, no serviceman or woman will be forced to be on our knees, and nation that captured or men and women will be feel the full force of america. the iranians did release the sailors in 14 hours, you still would release what you call the full force and fury of the u.s. military against iran for that incident? >> let's be clear. any nation that captures or military officers, captures or soldiers should face serious repercussions. the reason iran feld free to do that and mu hillate the soldiers -- >> i'm not saying it was right, but they were rear leased in 14 hours. you still would have taken -- >> but the only reason they were seized is because of the weakness of barack obama. the obama/clinton foreign policy leading from behind, our enemies

are laughing at us. the days after seizing our sailors and parading them on television to humiliate them, look those images were propaganda from comenu. within hours, they were profusely thanking comenu for letting our sailors go after they wrong le captured them and now they're trying to send $150 billion to comenu? khomei khomeini? >> there is good news. the fastest thing that can change with a new president is foreign policy. hostages were released the first day that ronald reagan was in president. here's how you said you would handle another threat. >> we will have a president who will make clear we will utterly

destroy isis. we will carpet bomb them into oblivion. >> senator, carpet bombing against isis would never work. isis is embedded in civilian populations in major cities, and if i may, i want to put up this statement here by bob scales, he's one of the leading u.s. military -- former head of the army war college. carpet bombing is a phrase that somebody with no military experience throw around. >> i will apologize to no one. with how vigorous i will be. we will start by having a president willing to acknowledge our enemy, say it by its name. and you want to know what it means? yesterday is the 20th anniversary of the beginning of "operation desert storm."

our air force has dropped in half. in 1991, 529 ships, today 272. it's dropped nearly in half. in 1991, we had over a third more soldiers in our army, and we were launching 1100 air attacks a day. we were carpet bombing them. after 37 days of 1100 air attacks a day, on troops went in in a day and a half and mopped up the remnants of the iraqi army. you know what we're doing now? between 15 and 30. >> first of all military people will tell you we didn't carpet bomb in kuwait, in the gulf war, that we did precision striking. in addition, if i may, the iraqi army was all massed by itself in the kuwaiti desert. we're now talking about isis soldiers who are not massed, they were embedded in mosul, embedded in raqqah with civilians. if i may, sir, let me hold on -- >> if you're going to make a respond, let me respond. >> i would like to ask about some of your votes and not the rhetoric. >> if you're going to make a

point, let me respond to it. >> go ahead, sir. >> right now our rules of engage innocent, 15, 20 attacks, it's photo op foreign policy. we're not taking out the oil feels, for example we saw railroads reports about jihadist universities. why isn't that building rubble? we're not using overwhelming airpower? in 1991 we had 2,000 planes there. we have about 200 right now fighting against isis. the difference is we do not have directed concentrated effort, because this president pretends like this enemy doesn't exist, like these are isolated lone wolves. he gives the state of the union, that is a state of the denial, gosh, isis is a bunch of guys in pickup trucks, no they are a serious terrorist force. we can defeat them, but can't if the president is unig to do so. as president i will defeat isis. i will utterly destroy them, and

it takes a commander in chief direct are our forces to do that. let's talk about your report you have voted last three years in a row about the defense authorization attack. while you attack president obama for failing to observe the red line and go after assad for the use of is it chemical weapons, back in 2013 you opposed giving the president that authority. >> so you have two questions there. you want to talk about the nda or syria? >> i think they are both of a pattern, sir. no -- well, let's talk about them one at a time. in syria, my view of foreign policy, every use of military power should be directed to the vital national security interests of america. the problem with syria, when president obama wanted to engage in a unilateral attack, i kept an open mind at first, let's here the commander in chief tell us how this advances our vital national security. president obama was unable to do

so. they vacillated between for instance of incoherence the juan point john kerry said it was to launch a small attack. essentially a press release. that doesn't make any sense. the question i asked over and over again in public hearings and in private hearings was if you succeed, if you topple as d assad. how do we stop radical islamist terrorists from taking over syria? >> sir, i want to interrupt, and i very respectfully, but i want to cover some more ground. so your answer is you didn't think it was effective. >> it would have hurt or interests to give syria to isis. it hurts u.s. national security interests. >> but you supported -- you opposed giving him the authority to observe the red line. >> but why? >> if i -- well, what about the three times in a row that you voted against the defense authorization act. >> that's an altogether separate

issue. >> i understand. >> you just ted they were tied together. so i have voted against it, because when i campaigned for senate, i promised the people of texas i would not support a defense authorization act that has within it language authorizing the indefinite detention of u.s. citizens on u.s. soil. i have supported over and over again with each defense authorization act on an amendment that mike lee and dianne feinstein have done that said if you're arrested, you're entitled to to what the constitution gives us and unfortunately the senate keeps blocking that amendment. >> and protecting an aaron accused i aiding terrorism is more important than authorizing the use of the military of the united states? >> honoring a promise i made to the men and women who elected me is my first obligation. it's what i've done every day, do what i said i would do. >> and that's more important than authorizing money for the military? >> by the way, chris, the

defense authorization act each one i have introduced amendments adopted into that bill. i have worked actively on the defense authorization act. i would like to support it at the end if they would add the protection for the civil rights of americans, i would support it in a heartbeat and note one amendment i introduced to the nda that passed into law was in december a year ago. it was an amendment mandating that the soldiers murdered at ft. hood by has san would receive the purple heart. the obama pentagon fought tooth and nail against me, yet i was proud to get the support of both democrats and republicans. we passed that legislation over a year ago. last april i was in ft. hood. to each of the families and soldiers i said thank you for yourselves and sacrifice, and i'm sorry it took over five years for your country to acknowledge you were fighting terrorists. you've taken some real hits

for your attacks on donald trump and the so-called new york values. i don't know if you've had a xlans to see them, because you've been on the campaign trail. here iss "new york post." they says cruz missiles and quote rudy giuliani as saying the country had gotten over this knee-jerk reaction against new york. they accuse you of a sneering apology. and another -- "slime doesn't pay, ted." your reaction? >> these are certainly amusing, amusing say the media lead in new york and d.c. run around with their hair on fire wondering what on earth new york values? in south carolina when i was there, the people there certainly understand it. and you know what is particular -- >> you know what is particularly curious, chris? is that formulation didn't come

from me. it came from donald trump. donald trump, when he was being interviewed by tim russert, sxlak his views a number of years ago. >> 1999. >> he explained in his views that he was pro-choice, he supported partial birth abortion, open to gay marriage, and his explanation, i'm a new yorker, i'm from manhattan. those are the views of new york. they're not iowa values, but that's new york values. so that was donald's over explanation of what new york values are. it's how he articulated it. it strikes me as curious that he is displayed such outrage that anyone would even acknowledge that there's a particular political view -- and i would point out it's a view echoed by far left liberal democratic politicians like andrew cuomo, bill de blasio, hillary clinton, and donald trump has supported those candidates and supported their positions on a lot of issues. >> one final question, and as i say we're just running out of

time, you condemn the washington cartel, which you call the lobbyists and politicians who rig the game. i want to ask you about one of your recent acts as a senator. you voted last month not to add month for the crop insurance program, but then you switched your vote and decided to add the money three minutes later. take a look. >> mr. cruz, no. mr. cruz, aye. >> senator, isn't that exactly the kind of game that the washington cartel plays? >> you know, chris, i appreciate you passing on campaign hits, and so i went up initially voting one way, believing we were voting on cloture, and when i voted that way, pat roberts made a comment about crop insurance, and i was puzzled, because what i believed i was voting on concerns the

import/export bank, not crop insurance. and i went back to the team and said what went wrong? and the team apologized and said they switched the vote. >> pat roberts, very highly respected, senator of the agriculture committee, says that's not the way it happened, he came up and tried to get you to change your vote, and explains and said this would hurt you in iowa. >> pat said it was about crop insurance, because my state of briefings said it was about -- you often have votes and they change the votes sometimes, so my staff had gotten it wrong, they briefed me on the wrong report. i said, wait a second, i didn't know i was voting on crop insurance, and the vote is open, so i said what exactly is this? >> you're saying you didn't change your mind? >> i didn't change my mind. we want that immediately. this is one of the sort of political games where we said immediately we said look it was a mistake on our part, we understood the order of the

votes, and we voted the way i always intended to. senator, thank you for your time. we'll be in iowa, and i hope to see you on the campaign trail so we can talk about more subjects. >> i look forward to. next our sunday group to discuss the release of the american prisoners, just as the west starts to implement that landmark nuclear deal. plus what do you think -- is the deal with iran good or bad with the u.s.? let me know on facebook or twitter @foxnewssunday and use the #fns. brought to you by -- yeah, a little. you're making money now, are you investing? well, i've been doing some research. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed?

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the united states, our friends and allies in the middle east, in the entire world are safer because the threat of a nuclear weapon has been reduced. secretary of state kerry announcing implementation of the nuclear deal with iran, the same day the two countries agreed to a prisoner swap. joining us is jerome will, carol lee, karl rove and charles lane. karl, what do you make of the release of these four americans, hostages, whatever you want to call them. >> i think it's a good thing they were released. we paid a high price, seven pardoned, 14 not prosecuted, but

americans are coming home. frankly it's obscuring a bigger issue. that is secretary kerry said this marks the start of a safer world. why could we believe that? they've tested ballistic missiles in apparent violation. this is took our sailors out and paraded them for propaganda purposes. even on the eve of the secretary of state's statements, they were engaged in a debate about the nature of the centrifuges that iran is allowed to develop. we're already arguing about whether they can go as far as they think they can go. this is the first day of a very long, bad period in which the iranians will take this deal and run with it. >> carol, i want to ask you about what senator cruz said and some of the other republican candidates, which is basically we traded terrorists, iranian

terrorists -- he said i'm not sure they're terrorists, but certainly bad actors on iran's part, some of them convicted for crimes for violating the sanctions for four american hostages. at the white house, which you cover, is there some sensitivity to that issue? >> well, their argument is that this -- they needed to show an act of good faith to get the americans home, and they had a list of iranians that were held in the u.s. that iran gave to them, and they chose these seven becamely because they were not charged with terrorism or any sort of violence. i think the question now particularly for this president going forward is where this relationship goes from here. you've had three successes the white house has viewed this week, the release for the sailors quickly, the iran nuclear deal being complemented and the relationship westbound

tested. gull forward is the two goerz have to end the flicks in syria, and second what iran does with this roughly $100 billion and how much mischief they make in the world. >> george, i believe that relations that are complicated will grow even more complicated. we saw that this week. we got the release of those ten u.s. sailors, first they were seized, then they were released. western sanctions against iran have been lifted, and now we've had the release of the four american hostages. what do you make of this relationship? >> well, there's a temptation to always see a pattern in a flurry of events, which is always remember to the rooster crows and sun rises, therefore the crowing of the rooster caused the sun to rise. i'm not sure how these are related. there clearly seems to be some

relationship, but then you go back a week and people say, well, it was really clever of the iranians to seize that ship -- we don't know whether the ship had engine trouble, we don't know if offense a navigation error or bad decision, we don't know how it got there in the first place. mr. kerry has decided to construe this as proof that relationships developed while negotiating the nuclear accord are paying off. we shall see. he also says this proves the power of diplomacy. it is always work if there's an asymmetry of desire. finally there's a tempsation here, and echo of a cold war that we're trying to maneuver between the hawks and doves in the kremlin and now the hawks and doves in tehran. i don't know. the supreme leader is supreme, he's not immortal. we'll see regime change of some sort in iran, and until then it

remains very opaque. >> and regime change -- it doesn't necessarily mean regime change. you could still have a theocracy. >> when you have a regime dominated so much by one man, when you change the leader, you change the regime. is there a roller coaster we have to expect, where there are some things that please us like the quick release of the sailors, the not so quick release of these four hostages, but on the other hand they continue, as karl says, to violate the agreement. they've tested ballistic weapons, and in some ways, you know, we are as disturbed by their actions as ever. >> yes, and i would add that the iranians did something very clever in the midst of all of this, which is make a huge order for airplanes from union, the airbus planes. >> they announced that

yesterday. >> they're already working to divide u.s. interests from european interests with an eye on the future of any kind of sanctions that might be supposedly snapped back under this agreement. another group of people eyeing with are the sunni arab states -- saudi arabia, the gulf arabs, and turkey, which isn't arab, but sunni, which has seen all along a threat to the region and source of instability. all the mischief that iran is up to, karl mentioned the ballistic missiles, but those countries i just mentioned are worried about hewi houthis in yemen and other issues. john kerry would say the deal on nukes makes it more manageable. i don't think the saudi will agree, and iran will is billions

now in that i coffers, and people are saying they'll end up using it to create more mischief. that's a nice word for it. >> the only new on that score is the low oil price. iran will not be able to get maximum revenues right away. we'll have to take a break and see you all later. up next paul ryans on the gop agenda heading into a big election year. plus what was it like sitting behind president obama during the state of the union address? your path to retirement... may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach to find long term value. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

coming up, with donald trump and ted cruz duking it out for the top spot. >> donald trump is dismayed that the policy numbers are falling. >> in the last tleek, i'm beating you. we'll ask our panel which of them has the advantage.

a look outside the beltway of baltimore's inner harbor, where they wok on the policy goals at the annual retreat. new speaker of the house paul ryan will a busy week, presiding over the state of the and then working on the agenda. we spoke to him on friday just after the party retreat wrapped up. mr. speaker, welcome back to "fox news sunday." >> hey, thanks for having me. good morning, chris. >> you say you want congressional republicans to be the proposition party, not just the opposition party. i know you'll be addressing a number of topics this year like the economy, like national security, but did you agree at all on an agenda at any specific proposals at this retreat?

>> yes, five basic areas we'll be working on, like you said jobs, the economy, national security, poverty and upward mobility, restoring the constitution, making sure that we get government back to the separation of powers in our constitution and replacing ob a obamacare with patient-centered health care and dealing with the entitlement issues. we got into a lot of specifics, but this is something we're working from the bottom up. this is not a top-down process. this is a bottom-up process. and their constituents forming this agenda. so it's way too soon to get into the specifics. we'll be rolling this out in the spring before we eventually have a nominee. >> now, there is reportedly a big difference in strategy between you and senate republican leader mcconnell. you want to pass specific legislation on tax reform, on replacing obamacare. leader mcconnell supposely want

to protect his members who are seeking reelection from any tough votes. how have you revolved that? or have you reis solved it? >> this agenda will not be passed, president obama is present. our goal is to say here is what we will do in 2017 if the country gives us the authority to do this. and we're going to need a new republican president. this will not be an agenda that you can pass. it's an agenda to pass with the republican president, and it's perfectly consistent with where the senate republicans are as well. >> let's talk about the current president. you asset behind president obama during this week's state of the union address and your wife jana reportedly told you she didn't want you grm massing or shaking your head. you have to practice your poker face. the speech is over, the poker face is over. what did you think of what the

president had to say, and why did you think he degraded the presidency in the speech? >> i think he's political, and strongman arguments, he affixes views that they do not have only to try to win the debate in an intellectually lazy way. i think's been the most polarizing president we've had in my lifetime and i think he tries to shift blame for his own mistake, and i think it was a fairly partisan and political speech. i don't think he can help it. i think he's always in this campaign mode. i think he just sees the world as what he wishes it would be, not what it is, and that makes for tunnel vision for a president. let's talk about a specific issues, ten yemeni prisoners were transferred from guantanamo, bringing the total at gitmo to under 100. last sunday on this show, the white house chief of stat denis

mcdonough said if congress doesn't close gitmo, the president will. take a look. >> we will close gitmo. it's bad for our national security, and because it's too costly. the president feels an obligation to his successor to close that. that's why we're going to do it. >> congress has repeatedly barred the president from doing that, but what if he goes ahead, when they certainly indicated as mcdonough said, we're going to do it. >> i watched that interview live last week, and i just kept shaking my head. there they go again. it's like they don't think the constitution matters anymore, the executive it make it up as it goes. the law is really clear. even the president's attorney general acknowledged the law is the law. the president can't do that. the the president cannot send these prisoners to the state. he -- by the way, chris, the law banning the transfer of get moe

detainees to america was put into law by democrats in congress and has been in law ever since and signed in as recently as december. so, look, he can send whatever he wants to congress, but the law is the law. i would be amazed if he will then carry out orders that they know are breaking the law. this is just another chapter in the story of the president trying to make it up as he goes. and so, look, if he tries to break the law, he'll be called for trying to break the law. >> that's 9 point. you and republican leaders said about obamacare, and same thing about the temporary amnesty for illegals. if he goes ahead and does it, can you stop him? >> look at detainees. two points. number one, are they going back on the battlefield? shouldn't we be more worried about our national security than

him keeping a 2008 campaign promise? two -- amnesty, he was doing something we believed was unconstitutional, so what did we do? we found the best way forward to prevent that from happening. they went in and sued the administration, and he didn't get the executive amnesty. it's not happening because we were successful. what we do is take the best way forward we can come up to get the best result, which is to stop him from doing it. >> you keep talking about "we," but there's obviously a speakers splipt win the ranks, one of the reasons you are now speaker, because speaker boehner was forced out, and some of the morse hard-line conservatives are upset that some of the people before you, including boehner, have raised the debt limbings have passed a budget and in effect lost your leverage, which raises the question, when the budget runs

out next september, are you preparing to wield the power of the purse which means shutting down the government, to push your policies? >> what is most important is we have an appropriations process that functions. what was really dysfunctional, and there's lots of blame to go around was that we piled up all the appropriations, which is supposed to be broken um to a big omnibus bill. i hate doing that. that's why we're starting the budget process a month and a half ahead of time this year, having 12 separate bills, so we don't have a big shutdown moment. 12 separate appropriation bills, regular order, the way the founders intended it, and the senate will follow sue. it will be using the polyer of the more more effectively, and that's why we're off to a good start do you that. nikki haley gave the official gop response to president obama this week. in that response, she criticized

donald trump. rush limbaugh and a lot of conservatives took off after you and said there was an effort by gop establishment to stop trump. take a look at hallie and then limbaugh. >> during anxious times it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. we must resist that temptation. >> nikki haley is the establishment, the firewall in south carolina where the establishment is going to put the brakes on and bring all this trump stuff to a screeching halt. >> mr. speaker, how do you plead? >> look, i read her speech the day bev she gave it. it was a great speech. she wrote it just like i wrote my own in 2011. i wasn't thing anyone in particul particular. i wasn't thinking donald trump. this is a good message to unified movement, and go to the country with a positive message that unifies. i think we win if we unify.

i wasn't thinking of any one particular individual when she made that address. >> finally, you seem to have per effected your poker face for the state of the union. i wonder, could you give that same look again? i'd like to see what the poker face looks like. >> you know, it's really hard to do. i just had to stare at the back of his head -- look, i don't agree with the president on -- i'm fairly expressive, i'm an arisch guy and i can't do it on command. >> just five seconds. okay. there. how's that? >> thatfuls two seconds. briefly. how does -- >> try doing it for an hour and 15 minutes. >> how does your wife say you did? >> she thought i passed the test. >> mr. speaker, thank you, safe travels, and we'll see you back here in washington. >> thanks, chris. take care. up next, the lates polls show bernie sanders is gaining

on hillary clinton. our sunday group handicaps a coronation that's turning into a contest. plus, what would you like to ask the panel about the tightening democratic race? just go to facebook or twitter @foxnewssunday and we may use your question on the air. marco rubio. he ran for senate saying he opposed amnesty... then he flipped, and worked with liberal chuck schumer to co-author the path to citizenship bill. he threatened to vote against it. and then voted for it. he supported his own dream act and then he abandoned it.

marco rubio. just another washington politician you can't trust. jeb bush. he's a leader, so you always know where he stands. right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message.

we need to have the courage in this country to bring forth a political revolution where millions of people stand up and say enough is enough. >> he wants to roll medicare, medicaid, the children's health insurance program into a national system and then turn it over to the states to administer. now, if that's the kind of revolution he's talking about, i am worried, folks. >> hillary clinton and bernie sanders sharpening their

attacks, as it's suddenly turned into a real contest. as we say the democratic race is tightening across the country. here is the latest real clear politics average of recent polls. you can see clinton leads sander by 8 1/2 points down dram lick. in iowa, clinton's lead is down to two points in at least one poll, and in new hampshire, sanders continues to clint i by six points. a month ago it seemed like she was on her way easily to the nomination. what happened? >> there's a lot of enthusiasm mon democrats for something different. he's tacked into that. it's cutting into her advantage. it's coming down to basically a race between enthusiasm and organization. the interesting thing about bernie sanders he has enthusiasm, but it's unclear he has the organization.

that remains to be seen in what happens in iowa and new hampshire. >> and in particular whether he has the organization after those two states. we got this on facebook from steve norton. he writes -- why do at new york/d.c. experts say he can't win. i say the first two states will ov overtake -- karl? >> there is not enough johnson county, iowas around the country and keene new hampshire. these are liberal bath onof -- in iowa, a college town in iowa, it's a college town in new hampshire. look, bernie sanders is likely to win both of these. if you take a look alternate -- even in iowa, where hillary clinton and the real clear politics average lead by four points, she -- if you -- there's one poll, which was done using automated telephone

devices, giving her a 21-point lead. all the polls in january average out to a on0.6 lead. it's collapsing not just because he has the excitement. it's because she's old and tired, and he seems to be fresh and liberal. the fact of the matter is, though, after you head south, it becomes tough for him. there's not places as liberal to sustain him. when you get to south carolina or nevada, you get a lot more african-americans, a lot more latinos, and a lot fewer liberal wackos. >> they're americans too, karl. there increasingly seems to be this ballots. take a look. >> i'm not bringing a sue, i promise, but the democrats are going to bring a lawsuit. you have to have certainty. >> i'm not going to be taking

legal advice from donald trump. >> you don't have to. >> george have you wrapped your head around the idea that the likely nominee is either donald trump or ted cruz. >> i think it's too early. they can't win with trump, they can't win without trump supporters, so the big question mark, will, and if so how much, will donald trump underperform his polls? iowa doesn't have a great record of picking the republican nominee. new hampshire likes to go, i think south carolina is the place to look. trey gowdy, a member of congress, he has endorsed rubio. senator tim scott has not endorsed anyone yet, neither has governor haley. chris christie says it will not come down to two in a hurry, but a final four with its own march

madness, what he thinking will happen is you have trump and cruz sustain for a while, you'll have he thing crist and rubio, and then it will be sorted out preference christie. a, he's a governor, he notes that four governors have endorsed so far, 24 haven't. christie says that will propel him. >> i can hear some of our viewers say george will remains in denial about what's going on. i say that respectfully. >> i'm in denial. >> chuck, how do you see the reparation? >> the new development for me was the clashes between cruz and trump who had previously treated each other with kid gloves i think on net, i would give the advantage to cruz slightly, because he was the first guy to flummox donald trump, leave him speechless in that exchange about the so-called birther

issue. he is the first guy to get under trump's skin, to make him act defensively, and we have seen the first shade of vulnerability -- even though trump did well in that debate, the first shade of vulnerable in trump, the first crack in his ven deer. >> we we have about a minute left. there's four so-called establishment candidates, you can see them there, rubio, christie, bush, kasich. of those four, who has the advantage right now? >> if you look at the polls, in iowa rubio is running third. and i believe trump leads modestly in the real clear politics average, in new

hampshire it's a lot less clear. rupe i don't, cruz and kasich all bunched, and if you at christie and bush into it, they're all within 4 1/2 points. given the nature of the average, that means it's a dead too is for third. >> a name or not? >> i'm not. i think -- new hampshire will be the key to make this a slimmer field. >> thank you, panel. see you next sunday. you next our "power player of the week" donald trump's right-hand man.

with the presidential race now at fever pitch, we want to take you inside the campaigns to meet some of the key figures behind the candidates. there was only one choice for who should go first. here's our "power player of the week." what's it like managing donald trump? >> that's a tough question. nobody manages mr. trump. i equate this to being a jockey on the greatest racehorse you have ever seen, maybe american

pharoah >> when he gets on the stage, do you know what's going to happen? >> i don't think anybody does. theyunder estimate the organization. noting the state director in iowa is chuck laud ner, who helped rick an tomorrow win. >> we have our faith in chuck. this is a super bowl for chuck. christmas and the super bowl combined. >> caucus for donald trump. >> it's fundamentally wrong, those who waited six hours in line for a one-hour reply wall rally aren't going to walk in and say i'm sporting -- i just don't believe it. >> do you ever tell him no? >> he asks for advice, and we tell him no all the time and he listens, but you're selective. you choose the right places to insert yourself. >> sometimes he holds me back, which is good. he has tremendous energy, the opposite of jeb bush. he has tremendous energy.

going all the time, and he does have a good vision for politics. >> corey admits he's an energy junkie. he even has a wall of shame with unflattering photoos of each who has dropped ute. how did he get into politics? >> i was 6 years old, i heard ronald reagan say strong military, stronger government. i don't know who that is, but i like that guy. >> why in college he ran for state representative, then there was a stint working on capitol hill and for the rnc, but over the last 15 years he moved away from the gop establishment. >> at the end of the day nothing is getting done. >> hi four years as a new hampshire state policeman. i arrest people for boating while intoxicated. it was a great job, and they paid me to do this. >> and in 2011, he debated a

cardboard cutout of new hampshire's governor about tax. all of which has some people saying donald trump's campaign manager is a lot like him. >> watching him in action, and that's what drives us every day. he will not be outworked, there is nothing he won't do to be successful in this endeavor. >> he's been called a bomb thrower who dismisses country club republicans, little wonder trump hired him to run his presidential campaign a year ago. now, this program note. next sunday i'll sit down with republican candidate marco rubio just ahead of the next gop debate. it's a sunday exclusive. that's it for today. have a great week, and we'll see you next "fox news sunday."

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